Background of 2023 presidential election cycle
With just six weeks to the 2023 presidential poll and INEC vowing that the elections will hold as scheduled, it is a good time to evaluate the presidential campaigns. We’ll try to analyse, discuss and determine which of the candidates is dominating the trail.
Which presidential campaign committee (PCC) is working the hardest? Admittedly, this is a moving target as the campaigns are ongoing and the endgames are just about starting. So, we can only take a panoramic snapshot. But remember, the variables are truly constantly changing.
First, we will try to assess the proportion of States the candidates have covered vis-à-vis the voting strengths (importance) of such States. Second, we will look at the attendance at the rallies. How intimidating are the crowds the candidates and PCCs have been able to spawn? Finally, we’ll assess the domination of traditional media space and that of social media.
But before we do the analysis, let us show the background data. There are 93.5 million eligible voters for the 2023 presidential elections up from the 84 million of the 2019 election cycle. Of the 93.5 million, men constitute a slight majority (49.5 million, 52.5%). Also, youths (18 – 34 years) form a large chunk of the voting population being one-third (37 million) of those eligible to participate and Students are one-quarter (26 million, 28%).
Perhaps more important is the distribution of eligible voters. The Northwest has the largest vote bloc of 22.3 million distantly followed by the Southwest with 18 million votes. The Northcentral and South-South are third and fourth with 15.4 and 14.4 million respectively. The troubled North-East has 12.5 million and last (but can’t be said to be the least) is the South-East with 10.9 million eligible voters. With this said, we now have more perspective as we begin the analysis.
States and Land mass coverage / Population reach
With regards to States and land mass coverage, and more importantly the population reached – the top three candidates (arguably – Atiku, Tinubu and Obi) have averaged about 15 states since the start of the 2023 presidential campaign season last September (up till second week January, dynamic figures) for major rallies. They have also had many more town hall meeting and surrogate campaigns across the country.
Atiku’s campaign has held 8 major rallies in the northern part of the country (NW, NE and NC). Tinubu has also done 8 major rallies in the north but has done more town hall meeting, business leaders forums/consultations and much more surrogate campaigns than the Atiku campaign. Obi, on the other hand has done 5 campaigns in the north and lags behind in engagement of this large voting bloc. When we look at this more closely, Tinubu and Atiku has held 2 major rallies in the very important North-West while Obi has done none, his reach presently limited to the North-Central.
In the South, Obi has done more campaigns with almost complete sweeps (visits) to all the states of South-East and South-South (9 out of ten). Whereas Atiku and Tinubu have done 4 out of ten and 3 out of ten respectively in those regions. Again, Tinubu has improved his access here using town hall meetings and surrogate campaigns (for example – Tinubu women campaign team).
The South-West is a unique area, the second largest voting bloc and arguable a region on lock-down for Tinubu. He has done two major rallies here with multiple surrogate campaigns and town hall meeting including the famous Ogun State ‘Emilokan’ declaration. The Atiku and Obi campaign have staked their claim to votes of the region with rallies in Lagos, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun and Oyo. How much they are able to encroach in this space remains to be seen.
Crowd at rallies
Evaluating the crowd at rallies, it is obvious that Tinubu and Atiku are miles ahead of Obi on this metric. Tinubu has been able to draw mammoth crowds in North-West, North-East, North-Central and of course South-West. His rallies in the south-East and south-south have been small to modest. Atiku has similarly draw huge crowds in the North-West, North-East and North-Central. His crowds have been modest in the South. Obi has had large crowds in the South-east and South-South (not mammoth, due to population limitations). His rallies in the North-Central have been small with really poor showings in Kogi and Nasarawa but much better attendance at the Jos rally. He has had a very poor showing in the North-east and North-west.
Domination of traditional media – print, TV and radio
Tinubu is the frontrunner by a wide margin in this area. His jingles are more frequent and placed in outlets of greater reach. Additionally, he is frequently on frontpages of newpapers and in the broadcast news as his campaign and rallies often generate a lot of buzz. His antics on the campaign trail always make good fodder for the columnists and the broadcast media. Atiku and Obi lag behind significantly on this metric.
Social media
Obi dominates this field. This is readily evident by the number of posts in his favour in most of the SoMe outlets particularly twitter. Also, the number of votes he garners on social media polls reveals his supporters are a large chunk of the users of this media. Tinubu and Atiku’s presence on social media though respectable lags behind Obi.
Conclusion
Overall, Tinubu appears to be dominating the 2023 presidential campaign trail and can be said to be the hardest worker of the three candidates at this stage of the campaign. Again, this is an active and evolving process, and we still have 6 weeks to D-day. May the best man win!