Who wins the 2023 presidential election? The Fitch verdict

Fitch Solutions Report

Fitch Solutions, a subsidiary of the international credit rating firm, Fitch Ratings, recently released a report predicting victory for Bola Tinubu in the Nigerian 2023 presidential election. It also predicted that there would be protests and social discontent in the aftermath of the victory. The unrest, they submit, would be a result of the famed or infamous (depending on where you stand) lack of diversity of the ticket of the ruling party.

The report further opined that Obi, who is widely popular on social media, will not win the election, despite his larger representation online. The report however acknowledges that he may do better than previous third-party candidates. A consequence of Obi’s better showing, according to Fitch Solutions, will be a splitting of the opposition votes. The splitting would negatively impact votes which would have been accruable to Atiku, the main opposition candidate.

Fitch Solutions, the company

But what is Fitch Solutions? And how credible and or accurate are their analyses? Fitch Ratings is the parent company of Fitch Solutions and one of the big three American credit rating agencies. It was founded in 1914 by John Fitch. However, it is currently owned by the Hearst Corporation, a huge media conglomerate.

Fitch Solution boasts that its services include the provision of in-depth country and political risk analysis and robust forecasts. It has huge influence in the business world and a global reach. I believe we can all agree that its report may be challenged but never dismissed.

A Nigerian report

You would hardly find any unbiased viewpoint regarding Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, particularly when it’s a Nigerian perspective. Almost everyone has a formed and likely rigid opinion on anything and everything.

There are a few people that appear to sit on the fence. However, they quickly unravel and reveal their hand if you engage them long enough. This post will try to do the impossible and circumvent any conscious or unconscious bias. It will present reasonable facts and let Nigerians draw their own conclusions on the Fitch verdict.

Peter Gregory Obi (PO)

Issues for PO

• Age: He is middle aged (61 years old) and is viewed as the more youthful candidate.
• Banker and business magnate: His business interest ranges from banking to importation.
• Billionaire (in Naira terms)
• He is a good speaker and can be charming
• He has strong support among the youths
• Online support: His supporters are very vocal on social media
• Southeastern stronghold: He has a strong following in the South-East and more support in the South-South
• Sizeable war chest: He is a billionaire and has a network of high networth friends. There are available funds for political campaigns and for mobilization of votes

Issues against PO

• Superficial, uses Buzz words: Though he appears eloquent, he is superficial talker. He mostly uses buzz words
• Very weak in the North: A massive chunk of the votes lies in the north and he has not made any significant inroads north of the Niger river. He is also weak in the Southwest.
• Online support: This strength may become an albatross. Some potential voters are put off by his ardent but abusive online supporters
• Overly zealous tribal support: There is a perception that he is a regional or tribal candidate. This situation is viewed suspiciously by other regions (also his refusal to condemn separatist activities raises eyebrows)
• Sizeable but not massive war chest: Though a multi-billionaire, war chest is not comparable to the other two seasoned candidates. His ‘no shishi’ mantra does not help
• Weak structure: No governor in his kitty nor any other significant elected individual.
• Corruption / conflict of interest: He has not satisfactorily answered the queries on his alleged investment (during his time as governor) of public funds in his family’s business.

Abubakar Atiku (AA)

Issues for AA

• Experience: He is a former Vice President and has run severally for the office of President
• Strong hold in the North: He has strong following in the north and also some support in the South-East and South-South
• Businessman: He has multiple interest in several businesses and believe in free trade economics
• Massive war chest for prosecuting the campaign
• Structure: Had twelve governors. May have been reduced to only nine. Still discussing with the aggrieved members.

Issues against AA

• Trouble/division in party: He has potentially lost the support of four governors
• Weakened traditional support in the South-East and South-South; His support base in the region whittled down by PO and infighting in party
• Corruption: He is perceived as being corrupt by some Nigerians. He allegedly had inappropriate deals (Privatization of State assets) during the Obasanjo years. His companies allegedly had monopoly of Government contracts.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT)

Issues for BAT

• Incumbency (Ruling party): Power of incumbency cannot be dismissed in any election
• Structure: He has twenty-two (or twenty-one) APC Governors and a majority of Senators and house members
• Strong support base in Southwest and North: He has steadily built up a strong support base in the North with the backing of APC northern governors
• Massive war chest
• Excellent record of governance: He has a sterling record of performance in governing Lagos State (when compared to performance in the rest of the country)
• Same faith ticket: May help maintain his northern support base and limit inroads by AA into BAT share of this demographic.

Issues against BAT

• Incumbency (Ruling party): the perceived poor performance of the current government, particularly in regard to the economy and security, may weigh him down
• Health: He is perceived as having some health challenges
• Same faith ticket: Some minority groups in the north feel alienated by his choice and have declined to give him support
• Corruption: Perceived as being corrupt by some Nigerians. His alleged role in Alpha Beta company and monopolies remains shrouded in mystery

The conclusion

The Fitch report was very clear about who they thought is the favourite to win the 2023 presidential election. However, only time would reveal how accurate their conclusions were. In the meantime, Nigerians can continue their analyses, and to add and remove from the list of for and against. They have up till February to make up their minds and cast their votes.